Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal has sparked a spirited debate after predicting that Ether (ETH) and other coins with “network effects” will outperform Bitcoin (BTC) over time.
Pal shared a chart of Ether’s price relative to BTC since Aug. 7, 2015 — six years after Bitcoin was created — showing that “ETH has outperformed BTC by 250%.”
Fascinating to see that since inception ETH has outperformed BTC by 250%. It only fell below its initial price in BTC for the first 5 months of its existence in 2015.
Let that put rest to the idea that all other tokens trend towards zero in BTC terms. pic.twitter.com/ulCpsjG8up
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) April 7, 2021
According to TradingView’s Bittrex chart, ETH began trading for roughly 0.006 BTC on Aug. 10, 2015. It is currently sitting at 0.0359 BTC.
Bitcoiners weren’t pleased with Pal’s interpretation of events, with Craig Wright antagonist, Arthur van Pelt, arguing Ether has outlived its early hype and that since the 2017 bull run, “it’s down 77% and on a long term decline. Cold hard facts.”
In response, Raoul remarked: “Since this halving cycle started, it’s up over 100%. Cold hard facts.”
Fund strategist and Bitcoin advocate Brad Mills took issue with the comparison itself, asserting the logic underpinning the analysis is flawed, as it does not offer a comparison between the currencies since their respective beginnings.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo suggested that Ether’s price rise was simply the initial hype cycle playing out and that ETH has little potential for future price increases. The first four-year cycle of any coin, he explained, “is its highest climber,” adding that ETH will likely just oscillate around Bitcoin’s price from here on, and it’s time to move on from it:
“You may as well just leverage BTC now that we are in 2021 with well developed extremely liquid derivative markets.”
There’s more riding on this debate about ETH’s rise in BTC terms than just pride. In November last year, What Bitcoin Did podcaster Peter McCormack challenged Pal to a bet, taking the position that BTC will be up against ETH after one year. Pal took the other side and stated ETH will rise closer to Bitcoin’s price after one year — with the loser having to fly the winner over for drinks in either London or the Caymen Islands.
Pal didn’t let the opportunity slip to also call a potential early victory:
Patience young grasshopper
— Peter McCormack (@PeterMcCormack) April 7, 2021